In this episode we’re going to talk about current status of the U.S. Livestock Markets. Shannon Sand, Agricultural Finance Extension Agent and co-host will be talk ing about the current market status and how the US market impacts us in Hawai'i. Mahalo for listening & hope you will participate in providing feedback about our podcast!
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Additional Resources:
If you have any questions, comments or request for special topics for this podcast please contact us at walaau@hawaii.edu
Thanks for listening! Check out our other social media platforms!
In this episode we’re going to talk about current status of the U.S. Livestock Markets. Shannon Sand, Agricultural Finance Extension Agent and co-host will be talk ing about the current market status and how the US market impacts us in Hawai'i. Mahalo for listening & hope you will participate in providing feedback about our podcast!
FEEDBACK FEST LINK
Check out our other social media platforms!
Additional Resources:
If you have any questions, comments or request for special topics for this podcast please contact us at walaau@hawaii.edu
Thanks for listening! Check out our other social media platforms!
Hello hat. Today's episode is brought to you by the Western extension Risk Management Education Center, USDA NIFA, and the University of Hawaii College of Tropical Agriculture and Human Resources and the livestock extension group. Aloha, welcome
Melelani Oshiro:to the livestock Walaau podcast aim to provide educational support information, guidance and outreach to our livestock stakeholders in Hawaii. We are your host Mele Oshiro
Shannon Sand:and Shannon Sam. And today,
Melelani Oshiro:we're going to be talking about what is going on in the US livestock market industry. And to do that Shannon is going to take it away for us
Shannon Sand:to talk more about that. Okay, so I just kind of figured I would talk a little bit about the industry, what all's going on kind of just a general market update. So if you don't know, my background is actually Ag Economics, and particularly econometrics, marketing, finance and statistics, which sounds like a lot. And I guess it is depends on the day. But I kind of wanted to take it back to why is this important to producers in Hawaii? So just some reasons why this is important to producers in Hawaii and mele, please correct me if I'm wrong, but is that it does, to some extent, influence prices here in terms of input costs and feed or grain, depending again, on the livestock products that you're growing shipping animals to the mainland, because we have a lot of people that ship feeder cattle and things like that. And then the other thing it also can influence is insurance prices, particularly things like livestock risk protection, which again, is generally geared towards cattle. But they do actually have a sheep option. I do not know if that's available in Hawaii.
Melelani Oshiro:But I don't know.
Shannon Sand:They do actually have a sheep sheep version. They were testing out a couple of years ago that I think, but also other things like like Hurricane fire protection, basically, these are FSA puts out so the prices do influence like what you get here. As far as insurance goes, if there's a natural disaster, Hawaii, like many places, I feel like there's generally one area ends up unfortunately, having it and then I feel like the COVID of it all. I don't know what else to call it, other than Yeah, because of COVID. It's it heavily influenced our security, as well as our prices and things like that. And again, you know, I think our input prices in the next year or so we're really going to take a, we've already taken a huge hit on the cost of food at the grocery store, because we've had the highest inflation we've had in decades. And I think it's starting to reach input prices for livestock producers, but I think it's potentially going to hit even heavier To be honest,
Melelani Oshiro:oh, and I think our livestock producers that are more in sort of a confined feeding operation, you know, our poultry or swine, all those things that impact the prices of those products in the states definitely impact our prices here because we have to we ship and all that feed, you know, so it's it's going to impact and that's why it's important to understand well,
Shannon Sand:and even if you're feeding slop, but if there's not enough tourists, you've got to feed them something. Yeah, so Exactly. It's influenced kind of one way or another by just the economy at large. COVID is just influenced everything. And I think it will continue to influence things for several years to come. If that's something you're interested in i i actually have a lot of information about that we could do a whole other episode related to that stuff. Because I think it's a lot more influenced. And people really think about for sure or no, well, I think everybody knows, but I think it's more heavily influenced things that some people have really thought about, especially if you look at again, prices and stuff. So
Melelani Oshiro:yeah, definitely, definitely.
Shannon Sand:And Hawaii being such a rural state, you know, physically isolated, it affects it even more,
Melelani Oshiro:you know, and I think some of the other outer islands that yeah, you know, like Hawaii and whatnot get impacted even more so Oh, my, then, you know, and Molokai II and Linda II, then, you know, maybe Big Island does or a wahoo because they just one more step to have to get things to them. Right. Yeah.
Shannon Sand:So yeah. And if you think when we had shipping, we had huge disturbances in shipping and even now at times, we still are having those much larger than we had in let's say 2019 2018 2017. So yeah, there's a lot of that going on. But we're gonna linger for a little while. Yeah, but we wanted to do just kind of a general update of kind of the markets. Now this is going to mostly be mainland but like I said, it does influence our prices in terms of things we receive, like insurance rates, as well as like if there's disaster coverage and stuff like that. So it's kind of good to know what's going on on the mainland just because of that as well as if you have animals you shipped to the mainland. So I'm going to start with the cattle market, because that's when I have the most information about at this point, that's the most up to date. And full disclosure, we are filming this in mid February. So I want to again, give a disclaimer here, that these are the current prices when we are filming this, that does not mean these are the prices. And the distributions are when this goes up in March. So I do want to give that disclaimer that we filmed these ahead of time, I kind of wanted to talk a little bit about trade and things like that. So the trade data we have for 2021 was recently released by USDA, and it shows that both beef and broiler exports posted gains over the previous year. Unfortunately, pork exports fell slightly. So what that means is there's not so much not necessarily shifts in demand. But there could potentially be some shifts it well could be shifts in demand. It could be shifts in supply, and could also be shifts in again, prices and input costs. So again, things for everybody to really be thinking about over the next coming months. On top of the fact that let's be honest, come March. That's when taxes are due for producers, your Schedule F so good. We could have done a whole episode related to that I did a lot of like I used to do a lot of tax docs, total eat beef exports, were actually at a record 3.4 billion pounds, which is 16.8% increase over 2020. So that's really, that's good. Well, if you think about the prices of like beef and stuff on the mainland, because it's gone down, that means the demand is what you know, those axes a little bit so that people are going to buy it because it's cheaper, or a little less expensive. And then pork exports posted the second highest level on record with annual exports and seven billions. 7 billion pounds. I'm so sorry. It is a 3.4% decrease from the previous year's record level of nearly 7.3 billion pounds. And then lamb imports hit a new record high of 264 point 2 million pounds and 2021 which is up 23.7%. Which makes sense. Because I watch a lot of cooking shows, I don't know about you mele maybe it's just me. I do feel like lamb is a thing I see more and more being used. And I know there's quite a few like lamb and goat small rumen producers on the islands. So that might be something to like take advantage of and think about. So broiler exports reached a record level in 2021 of 7.4 billion pounds, which is a lot the cattle inventory for the USDA NASS recently released that data. And if we want include some of these maps, so you can see the changes in the beef cows from 2021 to 2022, which you'll you'll have to watch on the YouTube channel, because I don't know that we can visually represent that on the podcast is difficult, but we will have links to some of this stuff in there. So y'all can take a gander. They released the January one cattle inventory report the other week and detailing beef cow herd sizes and changes at the state level. So the US beef cow herd declined by 719,000 head from a year ago. And that makes sense because there was a lot of drought this last year, as I think some of us experienced, again, on the different islands in different parts of the islands on Big Island. And so there were a substantial changes in key states, which indicates that we might have a price increase because generally when we have a sell off, again, that shifts those prices because we have less supply. So things can happen. You never know. But among the largest declines in beef cow herds were South Dakota, Texas, and Missouri. And it looks like Montana. Again, South Dakota looks like it had the largest decrease of about 189,000 head, followed by Texas with 160,000. But yeah, so it could potentially mean a shift in prices for us in this new year. Again, because there was the sell off. And like I said, I feel like it's kind of a cyclical thing that seems to happen historically, throughout the US because we do go through periods of drought, where we have a decrease in the cattle supply. Just because you're depending on your drought mitigation plan. That's part of it is when you get to the point where you start calling additional head, you know what I mean? I'm gonna talk a little bit about the sheep and goat inventory. Oh, although I will say because it does have a bye bye state. And it does look like there was ever so slight increase in the state of Hawaii in terms of our cattle inventory. Yeah, we're like
Melelani Oshiro:a couple 1000 head I think more than 2021 Dad that was based off the January's data.
Shannon Sand:So yes, yeah. So we're gonna look at sheep and lamb inventory now. It doesn't have anything for Hawaii. So the end of January for sheeps and lambs as well as goats and Kids, all sheep and lamb inventory continued downward trend by 2%. About 105,000, head to five points, a little over 5 million head as of January of January one of 2022. It is the lowest on record, which is really interesting if you think about those imports, because we imported so much lamb meat. And then the January one report for goats and kids inventory was at two and a half million head, and that's down 1.4% Or about 36,000 head from a year ago. If you like the lamb and sheep industry, I do feel like that's definitely coming around a lot more in terms of food, I do see it in a lot more on a lot more menus, and it's a lot more prevalent than it was a few years ago. So it looks like base slaughter hog prices have started to increase ever so slightly for January going into February, which is great, especially if you look historically over last year and the previous five years before that through 20 are from 2016 to 2020, average, and then 2021. And looks like it's ever so slightly higher, which is great news. That being said, again, because of the pandemic and COVID situation, I think it's gonna be really interesting to see what happens in terms of input costs with all of these. And it's definitely something to watch. So there has been, it looks like a slight decrease in terms of overall inventory of hogs and pigs. So it looks like current estimates for Hawaii for hogs and pigs is about 9000. If I'm doing this math correctly, based on the National Ag Statistics Service, or NASS data that they have, and it looks like it's a little lower than 2020. About 1000 had lowers my Yeah, is what it looks like. So we're look like we had 10,000, it looks like they are estimating we now have about 9000 head in Hawaii for hogs and pigs. That's pretty good, pretty good.
Melelani Oshiro:And I suppose breeding and market hogs. So
Shannon Sand:as far as the livestock industry, I think we do really need to watch the costs and things like that as well as with because we are again, physically isolated. So we have a lot of shipping expenditures in terms of cost to get things here, whether that's food medicine, input costs for like barns, or farrowing, or fence fencing supplies is what I'm really trying to say things like that, I was like that all adds up. And I think that's something that we kind of have to watch this next year. Again, we've seen input increases for the last couple of years, I mean, and given current inflation every month for the last since November of 2021 has been at almost record highs, I think that's something we really have to watch out for. Because in some areas of input costs for agriculture, it hasn't caught up. But what I'll say is it hasn't caught up yet. So that is something to be aware of. Not again, not to scare everybody, but just so that you think about it ahead of time, and you plan for those potential input cost increases, I think that's going to be really, really important over this next year. And so this first quarter is kind of when a lot of folks go through their budget and make some decisions. And so now's the time to try and pull out your crystal ball and do your very best to guess what those cost increases are. So and again, you can look at historic data as well as include like the inflation prices for the last few months. And, you know, I don't have we had shipping, we had some shipping increases in 2021. I know we had big ones in 2020 If I recall correctly, but yeah, and
Melelani Oshiro:that that increase is still there for shipping costs. So
Shannon Sand:while it's not going away, yeah. So again, you know, now's the time to really kind of put pen to paper which you already have to do anyways because taxes are due here pretty soon. So I think that's going to be you know, a big thing to really just take into account and think about what your input costs are going to be this next year and potentially ways you can decrease them or change them or again how you're gonna finance them because I think I think that's gonna be a thing to think about this next year. So I mean, I know mele, you have poultry and stuff. So, but yours are baby poultry right now.
Melelani Oshiro:Yeah. And ours are mostly for hold home use, you
Shannon Sand:know, you don't so I know you don't sell but but that is even if it's backyard, poultry or pets or again, sustained sustenance, farming. Again, it costs money. So you have to budget and think about a lot of those steps. And I definitely mean like I said input costs have increased but they haven't. They haven't increased at the same rate, which has been a little surprising. But I think I think they're going to catch up this next year. So I think that's the thing to be aware of and make sure your If you're estimating a little more than you think you need would be my guess. So I we definitely do see the difference, you know, in feed when we go and buy compared to when we first started having our our guy. Well, like I said, if you even think about like when we go to the, if you go to the, to the grocery store to buy stuff, I was like, in some cases, there's a 200% increase over a year and a half, depending on the product you're looking at. So if anything, it makes local products more cost effective to buy at times now. Yeah. But again, that's a whole other discussion. I just think the big thing is, is it's it's great. There's some potential upswing, depending on which livestock industry you're in based on exports, and things like that. I do want people to really just take home message is to know what's going on outside of our own, like, county city state, because we've had a lot of inflation over the last few months. And I think that's something to think about, like I said, can be couldn't be it's gonna be a double edged sword, in some cases can be really good. Depending on the industry, you're in potentially, you got some potential real Upswing to make some money. Yeah. As far as price is going up. Yeah. And the other thing is, is, like I said, that also means general input costs go up at the same time. And some of those haven't quite caught up yet. But but they will. So when you're doing your budget, make sure you try your best to account for. Yeah, and if that's something you have questions about, shoot me an email or give me my email address, we'll we'll include it below. Or you can email the Wala'au at hawaii.edu. Either one, I'm happy to discuss that with you if you have questions about how to make some of those estimates and stuff. But because those are generally individual discussions, that's not something we talked about a lot on here.
Melelani Oshiro:Yeah, everyone's situation is gonna be a little bit. But you know, it's even opportunities to talk about the budget is talk about your own production practices that you have in your own ranch. And if maybe integrating or diversifying some of the products that you are producing, maybe an option for you to help alleviate some costs are just, you know, improve in other areas. So. Yeah, exactly. Right. I also want to, you know, while we're talking about cost and things and whatnot, I do want to also mention, again, I a couple episodes back, we had Dr. fuse on here, Dylan, that talked about the cattle market here in Hawaii, and the project that he was working on making some D, creating some decision support tools. Currently, he has developed a survey, we're all on this project with him, looking at the different gate prices here in Hawaii, for cattle that's been fed out. So if you do sell cattle here in Hawaii, or ship them out to the mainland, for finish finishing, you know, or for your buyer or whatnot, you know, we'd love to have your feedback on the survey. And it's just gonna basically ask you, if you sold cattle, and some other few questions, it probably won't even take you more than five minutes to fill out a survey. We will include those links in our description boxes and whatnot, and really appreciate your feedback on this, you know, his decision support tools that Dylan creates really will be more effective for you if he does have this information. So it's completely anonymous, no information from you will be kept basically, we just want to know what people are getting. So that we can create some tools that are going to be useful for you. So or I should say, more like Dylan will create the tools
Unknown:that will help with some making some decision decisions. And you know, when you're doing planning and all this types of stuff, so but you know, in the in the mainland, getting prices is so easy, because they have the cattle barns and everything. Everything's well documented. But here in Hawaii, we're list a little bit different scenario, that we don't have that. So we kind of got to reach out to everybody to kind of get that information and kind of see where we can help build some tools to make to have for you to help your decision making and whatnot. So anyways, and if you're interested in learning more about this, like I said, you can shoot me an email. If you have questions about stuff, I'll do my best to answer it. And we will have resource links to all of the graphs and data that I and topics we discussed today via the livestock market information center and the USDA NASS and risk management associate at Risk Management Association, Risk Management Agency, AC. So we'll have all of that stuff linked for y'all below. Yeah, yeah. And again, if you have questions about it, just feel free to send one of us an email, you know, happy to happy to help. Yes.
Melelani Oshiro:So we hope you found this information useful for you or at least be able to get the resources that you may have questions about and again, please fill out our feedback fast survey. It's
Unknown:completely anonymous won't take you more than 10 minutes promise, and let us know if there's something else you'd like to hear from and it'll help us be able to continue to provide this type of resource for you folks. Yes. And make sure to join our Facebook page, the livestock extension group if you haven't already, and be sure to visit the U H. CTAHR. Extension website and our YouTube channel listed in the show notes.
Melelani Oshiro:Yes, and for additional information about this topic, see the show notes of the podcast or description boxes sentences of our YouTube page and thanks again for listening to livestock fallout. And before we go show some love for your favorite podcast, which is us, of course, is a review on Apple podcasts and then stay tuned for next month's episode. Yep,
Shannon Sand:thanks again to our sponsors, the Western extension Risk Management Education Center, USDA NIFA, the livestock extension group and CTAHR
Melelani Oshiro:Mahalo for listening. We hope you